| Na Richard Ahern - Huikau i na koho balota like ole? Ua kānana mākou i ka ʻōpala e wehe i ka ʻikepili maka e pili ana i ka mea e lanakila i ke koho balota 2024 inā e mālama ʻia i kēia lā.
Ke puka mai nei kahi koho balota hou i kēlā me kēia lā, kūʻē pinepine i ka mea ma mua, a he maʻamau ka poʻe media i ka koho cherry i nā mea i kūpono i kā lākou papahana.
Ua hoʻolei mākou i nā noiʻi kūʻokoʻa i kākoʻo ʻia e nā hui kālai'āina, ʻōpala i nā koho balota e hoʻohana ana i kahi laʻana o ka lehulehu, a ua hoʻohana wale i ka ʻike mai helu ʻia nā mea koho "B" a i luna.
Eia ka mea i loaa ia makou:
Ma ka ʻaoʻao Democrat, ʻike ʻia e holo ʻo Joe Biden no ke kau ʻelua ʻoiai ʻoi aku ka nui o 80 mau makahiki a e hōʻike ana i nā hōʻailona. ka emi ʻana o ka noʻonoʻo. ʻAʻole i noʻonoʻo nui ʻia nā moho Demokalaka ʻē aʻe i ka hapa nui o nā noiʻi, e waiho ana i ka hope pelekikena ʻo Kamala Harris ʻo ia wale nō ke koho kūpono.
ʻO nā moho Democrat ʻē aʻe e like me Hilary Clinton a me Bernie Sanders koho maikaʻi loa i ka wā i hoʻokūkū ʻia ai iā Biden a i ʻole Harris. No ka laʻana, ʻo 891 mau mākua i nīnau ʻia, ua loaʻa iā Harris he 11 mau helu kiʻekiʻe ma mua o Clinton, akā he koho balota ʻē aʻe i hoʻohiolo ai ʻo Biden iā Harris 41%–12%.
Ke hāʻawi nei iā lākou e hoʻomau i ka Pelekikena Biden e ala a pololei, ʻo ia ka manawa maikaʻi loa i loaʻa i nā Democrats i ka mālama ʻana i ka pelekikena.
Ma ka ʻaoʻao Repubalika, ʻoi aku ka hauʻoli me nā moho e hoʻolei ana i ko lākou mau pāpale i ke apo. Eia naʻe, ʻoiaʻiʻo he lāhui ʻelua kāne ma waena o ka pelekikena mua, ʻo Donald Trump, a me ke kiaʻāina ʻo Florida i kēia manawa ʻo Ron DeSantis.
Ua hōʻoia wale ʻo Ron DeSantis i kona manaʻo e holo ma ka hoʻomaka ʻana i kāna hoʻolaha me kahi ninaninau me Elon Musk i kau ʻia ma Twitter Spaces. ʻO ka mea pōʻino, ua hoʻopilikia ʻia ka hanana e nā pilikia ʻenehana, me ka hāʻule ʻana o ka leo a me ka pilina i nā manawa he nui. Mai ka hanana, ʻo DeSantis i kēia manawa ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ʻole (41.1%) ma mua o ka maikaʻi (41%).
I ka makahiki i hala aku nei ua koho maikaʻi ʻo DeSantis - ua hōʻike ʻia kekahi mau koho balota ʻoi aku kona kaulana ma mua o Donald Trump.
Ua hoʻohuli koke ʻia kēlā manaʻo:
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Nā koho balota mua Repubalika
ʻO Trump vs DeSantis 2024 koho balota
Hōʻike nā koho balota hou loa i kēlā pu ʻo ia ka mea mua Repubalika, me DeSantis e nalowale ana i ka mahu ma mua o ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka hoʻolaha. Hōʻike nā koho balota aupuni i kahi ākea nui ma waena Trump a me DeSantis, me ka helu ʻana o Trump ma luna o 50% a me DeSantis e hāʻule ana i kahi kokoke i 20%.
I ka minamina o ka poʻe Democrats, ʻo nā hoʻouka kaua kānāwai hou iā Donald Trump i hoʻoikaika wale i kāna kākoʻo lehulehu. I ka manaʻo o ka poʻe koho pāloka, ua hōʻoia hou nā hihia o ka ʻaha i ko lākou manaʻoʻiʻo ʻo Trump ka mea i loaʻa i ka ʻimi kilokilo.
Ua piʻi hou aʻe ka helu ʻae ʻana o Trump ma hope o kona noho aliʻi ʻana a hale kaona CNN, kahi i ʻike ʻia ai ʻo ia ma ke ʻano kiʻekiʻe - he ʻokoʻa loa i ka pelekikena o kēia manawa. Ua hōʻike ʻia ka hanana televise i hoʻokahi hola i ka pelekikena mua i kaulana i nā poʻe koho balota Repubalika, me ka lehulehu e ʻoliʻoli a ʻakaʻaka a puni.
Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ua hōʻole mau ka kaulana o ke Kiaʻāina ʻo Florida ʻo Ron DeSantis me Republicans, me nā hōʻike e pili ana i kona ʻike haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa a me ka nele o ke ʻano i ka poʻo. Ua like ka manao o ka poe koho— Ua loaʻa iā Trump he 9% ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe i ka wā i nīnau ʻia ai nā pākeke ʻoi aku ka "charismatic," e like me YouGov.
Eia naʻe, ua loaʻa iā DeSantis ke kākoʻo o ka lua o ke kanaka waiwai loa ma ka honua, ʻo Elon Musk. ʻOiai ʻaʻole i ʻae ʻo Musk iā ia, ua ʻōlelo ikaika ʻo ia e like me ia.
Hōʻike pū ʻia nā hōʻike ua hōʻiliʻili ʻo DeSantis i kahi kālā hoʻolaha nui ma kahi o $ 100 miliona, a me Twitter CEO Elon Musk ma kona ʻaoʻao, hiki ke ulu wikiwiki kēlā kālā.
ʻO ka hope loa, paʻa ka mana o ka poʻe koho, a ke hoʻohālikelike pololei ʻia iā Trump, ʻike ʻia ʻo DeSantis ka mea nalo.
ʻO ke koho balota hou loa mai ka Economist i hōʻike iā Trump e hoʻomalu ana iā DeSantis e 32 mau helu pākēneka no ka Republican primary. Pēlā nō, ua hōʻike ʻia kahi koho balota hou mai ka Morning Consult iā Trump e alakaʻi iā DeSantis e 38%.
I ka hopena o ka makahiki i hala, ua ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī o nā hopena, me nā koho balota e hōʻike ana iā DeSantis i ke alakaʻi. No ka laʻana, ua hōʻike ʻia kahi koho balota a ke Kulanui ʻo Suffolk iā DeSantis e alakaʻi ana iā Trump e 23%, a ua alakaʻi ʻo The Economist a me YouGov iā ia e alakaʻi i ka pelekikena mua ma 8%.
Akā ʻaʻole ʻo ia ka moʻolelo holoʻokoʻa:
2024 koho peresidena
Ke hōʻike wale nei kēlā mau koho balota i ka mea e lanakila i ka poʻokela Repubalika - pehea ka mea maoli ke koho balota? Ke manaʻo nei ʻo Joe ʻO Biden ke holo nei, ʻike ʻia ʻo DeSantis ka lanakila - akā ma kahi ʻāpana liʻiliʻi.
ʻOiai ʻo ka ʻaoʻao hema hema o nā koho balota, ua loaʻa iā Quinnipiac University ʻo DeSantis i alakaʻi liʻiliʻi iā Biden e 1% i ke koho balota. Ma ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana, ʻo ia ka noiʻi like ʻana ua alakaʻi ʻo Biden iā Trump e 2% inā i mālama ʻia ke koho balota i kēia lā, e like me ka poʻe koho balota.
ʻO ka holoʻokoʻa, hōʻike maopopo nā koho balota ākea ua māhele ʻia ʻo ʻAmelika 50-50 - kokoke loa nā helu. Ua loaʻa iā YouGov ʻo Biden vs. DeSantis ma ke ʻano like akā kau ʻo Trump ma 2% ma mua o ka pelekikena o kēia manawa.
He 82 mau makahiki ʻo Joe Biden i ka makahiki 2024, akā naʻe e like me ka poʻe koho pāloka, ʻo ia ka manawa maikaʻi loa i loaʻa i nā Democrats i ka lanakila ʻana i kekahi manawa. ʻO kahi koho balota i kapa ʻia ʻo Harris Poll ua lanakila ʻo Trump iā Kamala Harris i ke koho balota ma 11 pakeneka.
Inā ʻo ka hope pelekikena, ʻo Kamala Harris, e holo no ke keʻena, e like me ka poʻe koho balota, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kona kūʻē iā Ron DeSantis, e koho pinepine ana me ke kiaʻāina ʻo Florida.
ʻO ka hoa paio wale nō ʻo Harris i kuʻi i nā noiʻi ʻo ke kiaʻāina mua o South Carolina, ʻo Republican Nikki Haley - akā naʻe, ua koho mau ʻo Haley ma lalo o 10% i ka papa Repubalika.
Eia ka laina lalo:
Hōʻike ka ʻikepili i kahi 2024 rematch ma waena o Biden a me Trump, akā i kēia manawa, ua hoʻokaʻawale ʻia ʻo ʻAmelika i waena. Ua kokoke loa nā helu i hiki ʻole ke kāhea i ka mea lanakila ma kēia wahi. E paʻa mau ana kēlā manaʻo a hiki i ka lā koho - ʻo ia hoʻi ke helu ʻia kēlā me kēia koho!
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